Travel industry across the globe anticipating slumps – Big chance for tourism in Germany
The global travel industry is facing difficult times: „2009 will be a year of stagnation, at best“, as stated in the ITB World Travel Trends Report, issued by the consultancy IPK International on behalf of the leading trade fairs of the world-wide travel industry. „The situation for the industry will very likely continue to worsen before it recovers“ – this is the forecast of the trend analysis released in Berlin, according to which the travel industry around the globe needs to reckon with a slump of one to two percent in the year 2009 due to the financial and economic crisis.
The prospects for 2010 are no more encouraging: „The past months have shown how rapidly the basic conditions necessary for reliable forecasts can shift. Factors such as economic recovery and price development on the commodity market have a lasting impact on the travel industry and render reliable forecasts nearly impossible at the present moment“, said Dr. Martin Buck, Director KompetenzCenter Travel & Logistics, Messe Berlin.
According to the ITB Travel Trends Report, the people in North America and Europe will be particularly affected by the negative development, with the impact on the business travel segment being stronger than that on holiday travel. According to Dr. Martin Buck, the interest in travel destinations in short and middle distance range will increase in the next two years. Also, inexpensive fuel costs will grant a renaissance to traveling by one’s own car. „Tourism in Germany has a big chance“, Buck adds. The ITB Berlin takes place from March 11 to 15, 2009. „The current booking status is stably ranging at a high level. We are, again, observing global networking platforms such as the ITB Berlin gaining importance, especially in an economically tense environment. Business partners wish for direct dialog during these times. They want to look each other in the eyes“, said Dr. Martin Buck.
The results of the ITB World Travel Trends Report show that prospects for the recovery of the travel market differ largely per region. In the scientists’ opinion, the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America could get out of the crisis by as early as the end of this year, since these regions profit the most from the increasing demand from the emerging markets China and India. The trend analysis also showed positive signals for Europe. People do not want to forgo their holiday trips, even in economically very difficult times. Thus, 48 percent of respondents in a Europe-wide survey in fall 2008 stated they would definitely travel during their holiday in 2009 and presumably travel more often than in the previous year. 32 percent answered on the topic of travel intentions that they would travel at least as often as in 2008. Only 14 percent of respondents stated they would travel less. Six percent of respondents declared they would forgo a trip in 2009 altogether. But here, as well, there are large differences regarding the matter across Europe. While Norwegians and the Finnish look towards the travel year 2009 with a positive attitude, the people in Great Britain and Italy are very conservative in their travel plans for 2009.
The ITB World Travel Trends Report is based on the assessment of 60 tourism experts from 30 countries, a trend analysis conducted specifically for the Forum by IPK, as well as core data of the World Travel Monitor, which is regarded as the largest continuous survey of global travel behavior from about 60 source countries.
