„We have to withstand the current pressure and adjust to a shift in the international situation. That is where the main challenge lies today“, said Rolf Freitag at the conclusion to this year’s IPK World Travel Monitor Forums, which took place on 6 and 7 November in San Giuliano Terme near Pisa, Italy. „Nobody knows exactly when the end to the global economic crisis will be reached, and when the recovery will begin“, warned Freitag. But the IPK International Chairman and CEO is certain: „We can count on the elasticity of the tourism markets“.
After four years of steady growth up into May, 2008, the demand in outbound travel has notedly declined since June this year. Several regions reported negative results from September on, even. Accordingly, the 60 tourism specialists from around 30 nations reached a consensus in the Pisa Forum: this year, the demand for international tourism, that is, in the total volume of travel abroad, can only be expected to rise by three percent, at best.
It is obvious: economic crisis and recession have reached the international travel markets. Numerous airlines and tour operators have cancelled capacities for 2009. Most of the specialists at Pisa Forum are convinced that the demand for international travel will decrease by about one percent in the upcoming year. At the same time, they assume that the current crisis will last no longer than twelve months.
There was mutual consent at the Forum that some parts of the world will see a recovery as soon as 2009. Caution is advised, however, with forecasts regarding the recovery of the industry as a whole: there is neither certainty about the causes of the crisis, nor is it known, exactly how it will influence the available income. Another problem for reliable forecasts is the uncertainty about the development of oil prices and currency fluctuations. The majority of conference participants in San Giuliano Terme do not expect business activity in travel and tourism to pick up before 2010. New records for 2011 and 2012 were in no way ruled out.
These are some of the most important messages from the tourism specialists from all over the world, who got together for two days at the 16th Pisa Forum, following an invitation by IPK International, founder and editor of the World Travel Monitor, and the ITB Berlin.
Trends of the first eight months of 2008 on the most important source markets for outbound travel in the region show an increase of three percent in Europe for travel and overnight stays abroad. However, an average decline from six percent in the months from January to April to about one percent from May to August could be observed, reflecting the consequences of scarce credit, high fuel cost and the financial crisis.
The list of European countries with increased outbound markets is led by Russia (+15%) and Finland (+9%). Norway and Spain share a far behind third place with three percent, respectively. France, although the only European market to do so, is showing negative numbers, even, with four percent lower outbound travel.
Despite a seemingly turning trend since late summer, corporate travel, including MICE, reported increases double that of holiday trips for the months from January to August (+8% Corporate, +4% Holiday). Simultaneously, the number of other private trips, including visits to friends and relatives, decreased by five percent.
The development of outbound travel in other leading edge and growth markets match the European trends of 2008. Here, as well, there is a striking shift from long-distance to short-distance trips, the forgoing of second vacations and a slight decline in low cost air travel in favor of travel by bus, train and car.
With the exception of mexico tourism (+5.6% in July), the USA could register barely any increase in international air travel in the first five months of 2008. Journeys to Europe decreased by four, journeys to Canada by almost five percent. The Canadian outbound travel (+13%), on the other hand, boomed, if nothing else, because of the favorable USD exchange rates, at least until August 2008.
Tourism from latin american source markets, especially Brazil and Argentina, proved robust in 2008. Still, because of the depreciation of the Brazilian Real, a decrease in growth is expected over the last months towards the end of the year.
In Asia – one of the world’s fastest growing outbound travel regions of 2007 – results failed to meet expectations. Reduced airline capacities on many lines and increased security measures during the Olympic Summer Games in Beijing, which complicated the acquisition of visas and kept tourists from traveling to China, showed effect. An additional negative factor was the increase in cost of travel and living expenses. For the year 2008, IPK International expects a growth of around three percent in the region, only 50 percent of the growth achieved in 2007. Zero growth or declining activity are projected for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Detailed information on trends of the leading and new markets in the first eight months the year 2008, forecasts for 2009 and the analasys of the opportunities and risks identified by the participants of the Pisa Forum can be found in the ITB/IPK World Travel Trends Report. This report is published by ITB Berlin in English and will be available starting end of November, at which time it will be accessible at www.itb-berlin.com/Publications. Find out more about the topic at: Messe Berlin GmbH
Astrid Ehring, Public Relations Officer
E-Mail: ehring@messe-berlin.com
www.messe-berlin.de
